![[特殊字符] World Threat Model Analysis](http://pic.xiahunao.cn/yaotu/[特殊字符] World Threat Model Analysis)
World Threat Model Analysis【免费下载链接】LifeOS⛰️ The Life Operating System — an intent engineering platform that moves you from your current state to your ideal state, in life and work.项目地址: https://gitcode.com/GitHub_Trending/pe/LifeOSIdea/Strategy:{users input, summarized in 1-2 sentences}Tier:{Fast | Standard | Deep}Date:{YYYY-MM-DD}Models Last Updated:{date of oldest model used}Executive VerdictOverall Assessment:{1-2 sentence summary of how the idea holds up across all horizons}Strongest Period:{which horizon(s) are most favorable and why}Greatest Risk Period:{which horizon(s) are most threatening and why}Recommendation:{actionable 1-2 sentence recommendation}### 7.2 每个视界的分析块11 份 对每个视界以 ## ━━━ {HORIZON} Horizon ━━━ 分隔包含 - **Verdict** FAVORABLE / NEUTRAL / UNFAVORABLE - **Confidence**HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW - **Key Factors**34 条来自该视界模型、影响该想法的因素 - **Analysis**24 段实质分析该视界的世界状态如何与想法相互作用什么繁荣、什么崩溃、什么需要适应 - **Assumptions Tested (FirstPrinciples)**硬约束 / 软约束 / 被挑战的假设 - **Adversarial Findings (RedTeam)**最强攻击向量Attack vector 最强辩护Steelman。 ### 7.3 跨视界综合仅 Standard/Deep - **Timeline of Viability**想法存续性的叙事弧线——不仅先好后坏要解释动态、拐点与转换驱动力 - **Critical Inflection Points**按年份列出关键转折及其原因 - **Adaptation Recommendations**想法要存活更久视界需要如何演进、何时演进。 ### 7.4 Council 辩论摘要仅 Deep 最强支持论点FOR/ 最强反对论点AGAINST/ 共识点Points of Consensus/ 未决张力Unresolved Tensions。 ### 7.5 分档包含矩阵 | 章节 | Fast | Standard | Deep | |------|------|----------|------| | Header | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | | Executive Verdict | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | | Per-Horizon精简 | ✅仅判定23 条要点 | — | — | | Per-Horizon完整 | — | ✅ | ✅ | | Cross-Horizon Synthesis | — | ✅ | ✅ | | Council Deliberation | — | — | ✅ | | Footer | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | 页脚示例 markdown --- *Analysis generated by World Threat Model Harness | Models version: {dates} | Tier: {tier}* *For model updates: update world models | For different depth: test [idea] deep/fast*八、UpdateModels 工作流创建、刷新与局部更新UpdateModels.md 定义模型维护流程触发场景包括模型超过 30 天未更新、用户提供新信息、以及初始填充尚无任何模型。Step 0检查现状读取WorldModels/INDEX.md若存在盘点哪些模型存在及其last_updated日期判定是全量创建还是定向更新。Step 2确定更新范围三种模式全量创建无模型或用户说 rebuild all并行研究 Agent 从零创建 11 个模型定向更新模型存在 用户提供新分析或例行刷新用户分析纳入相关视界 / 研究自last_updated以来的变化只更新受影响的模型单视界更新用户指定 update the 5-year model只研究并更新指定视界。Step 3研究当前状态对每个待建/待更新的模型调用Research技能Standard 或 Extensive 模式查询格式为Current global state and projections for {HORIZON} timeframe: geopolitics, AI/technology trajectory, economics, society, environment, security. Focus on developments since {last_updated or baseline}.并按下述节奏区分研究重心近端6mo-3yr当前事件、即时趋势、具体预测中端5yr-10yr趋势轨迹、结构性转变、新兴模式远端15yr-50yr宏观趋势、人口力量、技术范式转移。并行分批近端批6mo/1yr/2yr/3yr4 个 Agent、中端批5yr/7yr/10yr3 个 Agent、远端批15yr/20yr/30yr/50yr4 个 Agent每个 Agent 用 Research 技能服务自己的视界。Step 4撰写模型文档按 ModelTemplate.md 撰写写 frontmatterhorizon、last_updated 为今日、version 递增、confidence、写齐 9 个章节且满足字数下限、预测使用对冲语言、包含具体数据点与具名实体、Wildcards 章节给出概率估计。保存到WorldModels/{horizon}.md。Step 5更新 INDEX# World Threat Models — Index Last full update: {date} | Horizon | File | Last Updated | Version | Confidence | |---------|------|-------------|---------|------------| | 6 months | 6-month.md | YYYY-MM-DD | N | high/med/low | | 1 year | 1-year.md | YYYY-MM-DD | N | high/med/low | | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ## Update History - YYYY-MM-DD: {what was updated and why}并行模型创建的 Agent Prompt 模板仓库给出了可直接复用的提示词骨架SLA 5 分钟、最低 4000 词、至少 4 个带概率的野牌、给出置信度并解释原因、用 WebSearch 做研究CONTEXT: You are creating a world threat model for the {HORIZON} time horizon. The current date is {TODAY}. This model will be used to test ideas, strategies, and investments against projected future world states. TASK: Write a comprehensive world model document following this template: {INSERT ModelTemplate.md CONTENT} REQUIREMENTS: - Minimum 4,000 words across all sections - Use hedging language for predictions (likely, projected, if trends continue) - Be specific: name countries, companies, technologies, cite numbers where possible - Near-term models: heavier on current data extrapolation - Long-term models: focus on structural forces and megatrends - Include at least 4 wildcards with probability estimates - Rate your overall confidence and explain why RESEARCH: Use WebSearch to find current data, forecasts, and analysis relevant to this {HORIZON} timeframe across all sections (geopolitics, technology, economics, society, environment, security). SLA: Complete within 5 minutes. OUTPUT: Write the complete model document in markdown format following the template exactly. Include the frontmatter with horizon, last_updated, version: 1, and confidence rating.状态管理循环兼容性磁盘上的模型文件就是状态Step 0 读取现有状态决定更新范围每个模型可独立更新INDEX.md 跟踪聚合状态。九、ViewModels 工作流只读状态查看ViewModels.md 是一个只读工作流用于在执行 TestIdea 前检查模型新鲜度也用于随时掌握当前世界模型概貌。Step 2读取WorldModels/INDEX.md若不存在则提示 No world models found. Run update world models to create them.。Step 3三种视图范围Overview默认展示含全部视界、日期、版本、置信度的 INDEX 表格对每个模型给出 23 句 Executive Summary 摘录标记超过 30 天的模型为陈旧staleSingle Horizon如 show me the 5-year model读取并展示该视界的完整模型文档Comparison如 compare near-term vs long-term并排对比所选视界的关键主题突出短期与长期趋势的冲突点。Step 4新鲜度分级——按last_updated距今天数分级天数状态 7 天 Fresh7–30 天 Current30–90 天 Aging建议刷新 90 天 Stale强烈建议更新Step 5输出模板# World Threat Model Status | Horizon | Last Updated | Version | Confidence | Freshness | |---------|-------------|---------|------------|-----------| | 6 months | YYYY-MM-DD | N | HIGH | Fresh | | 1 year | YYYY-MM-DD | N | MEDIUM | Current | | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ## Summaries ### 6-Month Horizon {2-3 sentence executive summary excerpt} ## Recommendations - {Any models needing refresh} - {Any notable changes since last update}十、技能集成矩阵RedTeam / FirstPrinciples / Council / Research 的协作分工WorldThreatModel 是一个编排型技能自身不重复造轮子而是组合 LifeOS 中的既有能力。集成点汇总来自 TestIdea.md 与 UpdateModels.md技能档位用途FirstPrinciplesStandard、Deep测试前把想法的假设分解为硬约束/软约束/假设RedTeamStandard、Deep跨视界对抗攻击想法Deep 档 32 AgentCouncil仅 Deep多视角长期存续性辩论Research仅 DeepTestIdea 中/ 模型创建与更新视界相关时事快速刷新 / 模型内容研究WebSearchUpdateModels当前事件与预测数据分工定位的关键区别源自各技能 SKILL.mdRedTeam是纯对抗式攻击把想法分解为原子声明、多专家并行攻击、输出 severity 排序的发现与补救路径目标是破坏Council是协作对抗式辩论自定义 brief 的多 Agent 分轮互驳、产出可见的逐轮转写与综合目标是找到最佳路径FirstPrinciples提供约束分类学只有硬约束物理/现实真正不可变软约束与假设都应被挑战Research提供世界状态的事实底座保证模型内容不是凭空臆测。在 LifeOS 的 settings.enhancements.json 中该组合被总结为WorldThreatModel combines RedTeam FirstPrinciples Council for adversarial analysis并给出组合用法Combine thinking skills: Council to debate, then WorldThreatModel to future-proof the decision。十一、运行约定语音通知、自定义覆盖与执行日志语音通知任何工作流执行前必须发送语音通知所有 LifeOS 技能的强制约定curl -s -X POST http://localhost:31337/notify \ -H Content-Type: application/json \ -d {message: Running the WORKFLOWNAME workflow in the WorldThreatModel skill to ACTION} \ /dev/null 21 随后在对话中输出文本通知Running the **WorkflowName** workflow in the **WorldThreatModel** skill to ACTION...自定义检查执行前检查用户自定义覆盖目录~/.claude/LIFEOS/USER/CUSTOMIZATIONS/SKILLS/WorldThreatModel/。若该目录存在加载其中的 PREFERENCES.md、配置或资源并覆盖默认行为。执行日志每个工作流完成后向 JSONL 追加一条记录执行日志统一写入~/.claude/LIFEOS/MEMORY/SKILLS/execution.jsonlecho {ts:$(date -u %Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ),skill:WorldThreatModel,workflow:WORKFLOW_USED,input:8_WORD_SUMMARY,status:ok|error,duration_s:SECONDS} ~/.claude/LIFEOS/MEMORY/SKILLS/execution.jsonl其中WORKFLOW_USED替换为实际执行的工作流8_WORD_SUMMARY为输入简述SECONDS为墙钟耗时失败时记录status: error。十二、Gotchas使用该技能的三个纪律SKILL.md 明确给出三条使用纪律11 个时间视界6mo-50yr是核心资产——不要过度看重短期预测价值在于长期结构性分析威胁模型是假设性的——必须作为带概率区间的情景呈现而不是预言prediction重大世界事件发生后必须更新模型——静态威胁模型会随时间衰减准确性decay in accuracy。配合 ViewModels 的新鲜度分级30 天建议刷新、90 天强烈建议更新与 UpdateModels 的定向更新能力这是一套要求持续维护、而非一次性生成的系统。十三、实战示例示例 1检验一个投资论点User: threat model my bet on AI-first content creation → 跨 11 个时间视界6mo 至 50yr分析 → 识别每个视界的结构性风险 → 返回概率加权情景矩阵示例 2压力测试一个策略User: what could go wrong with our newsletter business model? → 映射威胁向量市场、技术、监管、竞争 → 返回带缓解措施的优先级风险登记表prioritized risk register【免费下载链接】LifeOS⛰️ The Life Operating System — an intent engineering platform that moves you from your current state to your ideal state, in life and work.项目地址: https://gitcode.com/GitHub_Trending/pe/LifeOS创作声明：本文部分内容由AI辅助生成（AIGC），仅供参考 [特殊字符] World Threat Model Analysis
World Threat Model Analysis【免费下载链接】LifeOS⛰️ The Life Operating System — an intent engineering platform that moves you from your current state to your ideal state, in life and work.项目地址: https://gitcode.com/GitHub_Trending/pe/LifeOSIdea/Strategy:{users input, summarized in 1-2 sentences}Tier:{Fast | Standard | Deep}Date:{YYYY-MM-DD}Models Last Updated:{date of oldest model used}Executive VerdictOverall Assessment:{1-2 sentence summary of how the idea holds up across all horizons}Strongest Period:{which horizon(s) are most favorable and why}Greatest Risk Period:{which horizon(s) are most threatening and why}Recommendation:{actionable 1-2 sentence recommendation}### 7.2 每个视界的分析块11 份 对每个视界以 ## ━━━ {HORIZON} Horizon ━━━ 分隔包含 - **Verdict** FAVORABLE / NEUTRAL / UNFAVORABLE - **Confidence**HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW - **Key Factors**34 条来自该视界模型、影响该想法的因素 - **Analysis**24 段实质分析该视界的世界状态如何与想法相互作用什么繁荣、什么崩溃、什么需要适应 - **Assumptions Tested (FirstPrinciples)**硬约束 / 软约束 / 被挑战的假设 - **Adversarial Findings (RedTeam)**最强攻击向量Attack vector 最强辩护Steelman。 ### 7.3 跨视界综合仅 Standard/Deep - **Timeline of Viability**想法存续性的叙事弧线——不仅先好后坏要解释动态、拐点与转换驱动力 - **Critical Inflection Points**按年份列出关键转折及其原因 - **Adaptation Recommendations**想法要存活更久视界需要如何演进、何时演进。 ### 7.4 Council 辩论摘要仅 Deep 最强支持论点FOR/ 最强反对论点AGAINST/ 共识点Points of Consensus/ 未决张力Unresolved Tensions。 ### 7.5 分档包含矩阵 | 章节 | Fast | Standard | Deep | |------|------|----------|------| | Header | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | | Executive Verdict | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | | Per-Horizon精简 | ✅仅判定23 条要点 | — | — | | Per-Horizon完整 | — | ✅ | ✅ | | Cross-Horizon Synthesis | — | ✅ | ✅ | | Council Deliberation | — | — | ✅ | | Footer | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | 页脚示例 markdown --- *Analysis generated by World Threat Model Harness | Models version: {dates} | Tier: {tier}* *For model updates: update world models | For different depth: test [idea] deep/fast*八、UpdateModels 工作流创建、刷新与局部更新UpdateModels.md 定义模型维护流程触发场景包括模型超过 30 天未更新、用户提供新信息、以及初始填充尚无任何模型。Step 0检查现状读取WorldModels/INDEX.md若存在盘点哪些模型存在及其last_updated日期判定是全量创建还是定向更新。Step 2确定更新范围三种模式全量创建无模型或用户说 rebuild all并行研究 Agent 从零创建 11 个模型定向更新模型存在 用户提供新分析或例行刷新用户分析纳入相关视界 / 研究自last_updated以来的变化只更新受影响的模型单视界更新用户指定 update the 5-year model只研究并更新指定视界。Step 3研究当前状态对每个待建/待更新的模型调用Research技能Standard 或 Extensive 模式查询格式为Current global state and projections for {HORIZON} timeframe: geopolitics, AI/technology trajectory, economics, society, environment, security. Focus on developments since {last_updated or baseline}.并按下述节奏区分研究重心近端6mo-3yr当前事件、即时趋势、具体预测中端5yr-10yr趋势轨迹、结构性转变、新兴模式远端15yr-50yr宏观趋势、人口力量、技术范式转移。并行分批近端批6mo/1yr/2yr/3yr4 个 Agent、中端批5yr/7yr/10yr3 个 Agent、远端批15yr/20yr/30yr/50yr4 个 Agent每个 Agent 用 Research 技能服务自己的视界。Step 4撰写模型文档按 ModelTemplate.md 撰写写 frontmatterhorizon、last_updated 为今日、version 递增、confidence、写齐 9 个章节且满足字数下限、预测使用对冲语言、包含具体数据点与具名实体、Wildcards 章节给出概率估计。保存到WorldModels/{horizon}.md。Step 5更新 INDEX# World Threat Models — Index Last full update: {date} | Horizon | File | Last Updated | Version | Confidence | |---------|------|-------------|---------|------------| | 6 months | 6-month.md | YYYY-MM-DD | N | high/med/low | | 1 year | 1-year.md | YYYY-MM-DD | N | high/med/low | | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ## Update History - YYYY-MM-DD: {what was updated and why}并行模型创建的 Agent Prompt 模板仓库给出了可直接复用的提示词骨架SLA 5 分钟、最低 4000 词、至少 4 个带概率的野牌、给出置信度并解释原因、用 WebSearch 做研究CONTEXT: You are creating a world threat model for the {HORIZON} time horizon. The current date is {TODAY}. This model will be used to test ideas, strategies, and investments against projected future world states. TASK: Write a comprehensive world model document following this template: {INSERT ModelTemplate.md CONTENT} REQUIREMENTS: - Minimum 4,000 words across all sections - Use hedging language for predictions (likely, projected, if trends continue) - Be specific: name countries, companies, technologies, cite numbers where possible - Near-term models: heavier on current data extrapolation - Long-term models: focus on structural forces and megatrends - Include at least 4 wildcards with probability estimates - Rate your overall confidence and explain why RESEARCH: Use WebSearch to find current data, forecasts, and analysis relevant to this {HORIZON} timeframe across all sections (geopolitics, technology, economics, society, environment, security). SLA: Complete within 5 minutes. OUTPUT: Write the complete model document in markdown format following the template exactly. Include the frontmatter with horizon, last_updated, version: 1, and confidence rating.状态管理循环兼容性磁盘上的模型文件就是状态Step 0 读取现有状态决定更新范围每个模型可独立更新INDEX.md 跟踪聚合状态。九、ViewModels 工作流只读状态查看ViewModels.md 是一个只读工作流用于在执行 TestIdea 前检查模型新鲜度也用于随时掌握当前世界模型概貌。Step 2读取WorldModels/INDEX.md若不存在则提示 No world models found. Run update world models to create them.。Step 3三种视图范围Overview默认展示含全部视界、日期、版本、置信度的 INDEX 表格对每个模型给出 23 句 Executive Summary 摘录标记超过 30 天的模型为陈旧staleSingle Horizon如 show me the 5-year model读取并展示该视界的完整模型文档Comparison如 compare near-term vs long-term并排对比所选视界的关键主题突出短期与长期趋势的冲突点。Step 4新鲜度分级——按last_updated距今天数分级天数状态 7 天 Fresh7–30 天 Current30–90 天 Aging建议刷新 90 天 Stale强烈建议更新Step 5输出模板# World Threat Model Status | Horizon | Last Updated | Version | Confidence | Freshness | |---------|-------------|---------|------------|-----------| | 6 months | YYYY-MM-DD | N | HIGH | Fresh | | 1 year | YYYY-MM-DD | N | MEDIUM | Current | | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ## Summaries ### 6-Month Horizon {2-3 sentence executive summary excerpt} ## Recommendations - {Any models needing refresh} - {Any notable changes since last update}十、技能集成矩阵RedTeam / FirstPrinciples / Council / Research 的协作分工WorldThreatModel 是一个编排型技能自身不重复造轮子而是组合 LifeOS 中的既有能力。集成点汇总来自 TestIdea.md 与 UpdateModels.md技能档位用途FirstPrinciplesStandard、Deep测试前把想法的假设分解为硬约束/软约束/假设RedTeamStandard、Deep跨视界对抗攻击想法Deep 档 32 AgentCouncil仅 Deep多视角长期存续性辩论Research仅 DeepTestIdea 中/ 模型创建与更新视界相关时事快速刷新 / 模型内容研究WebSearchUpdateModels当前事件与预测数据分工定位的关键区别源自各技能 SKILL.mdRedTeam是纯对抗式攻击把想法分解为原子声明、多专家并行攻击、输出 severity 排序的发现与补救路径目标是破坏Council是协作对抗式辩论自定义 brief 的多 Agent 分轮互驳、产出可见的逐轮转写与综合目标是找到最佳路径FirstPrinciples提供约束分类学只有硬约束物理/现实真正不可变软约束与假设都应被挑战Research提供世界状态的事实底座保证模型内容不是凭空臆测。在 LifeOS 的 settings.enhancements.json 中该组合被总结为WorldThreatModel combines RedTeam FirstPrinciples Council for adversarial analysis并给出组合用法Combine thinking skills: Council to debate, then WorldThreatModel to future-proof the decision。十一、运行约定语音通知、自定义覆盖与执行日志语音通知任何工作流执行前必须发送语音通知所有 LifeOS 技能的强制约定curl -s -X POST http://localhost:31337/notify \ -H Content-Type: application/json \ -d {message: Running the WORKFLOWNAME workflow in the WorldThreatModel skill to ACTION} \ /dev/null 21 随后在对话中输出文本通知Running the **WorkflowName** workflow in the **WorldThreatModel** skill to ACTION...自定义检查执行前检查用户自定义覆盖目录~/.claude/LIFEOS/USER/CUSTOMIZATIONS/SKILLS/WorldThreatModel/。若该目录存在加载其中的 PREFERENCES.md、配置或资源并覆盖默认行为。执行日志每个工作流完成后向 JSONL 追加一条记录执行日志统一写入~/.claude/LIFEOS/MEMORY/SKILLS/execution.jsonlecho {ts:$(date -u %Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ),skill:WorldThreatModel,workflow:WORKFLOW_USED,input:8_WORD_SUMMARY,status:ok|error,duration_s:SECONDS} ~/.claude/LIFEOS/MEMORY/SKILLS/execution.jsonl其中WORKFLOW_USED替换为实际执行的工作流8_WORD_SUMMARY为输入简述SECONDS为墙钟耗时失败时记录status: error。十二、Gotchas使用该技能的三个纪律SKILL.md 明确给出三条使用纪律11 个时间视界6mo-50yr是核心资产——不要过度看重短期预测价值在于长期结构性分析威胁模型是假设性的——必须作为带概率区间的情景呈现而不是预言prediction重大世界事件发生后必须更新模型——静态威胁模型会随时间衰减准确性decay in accuracy。配合 ViewModels 的新鲜度分级30 天建议刷新、90 天强烈建议更新与 UpdateModels 的定向更新能力这是一套要求持续维护、而非一次性生成的系统。十三、实战示例示例 1检验一个投资论点User: threat model my bet on AI-first content creation → 跨 11 个时间视界6mo 至 50yr分析 → 识别每个视界的结构性风险 → 返回概率加权情景矩阵示例 2压力测试一个策略User: what could go wrong with our newsletter business model? → 映射威胁向量市场、技术、监管、竞争 → 返回带缓解措施的优先级风险登记表prioritized risk register【免费下载链接】LifeOS⛰️ The Life Operating System — an intent engineering platform that moves you from your current state to your ideal state, in life and work.项目地址: https://gitcode.com/GitHub_Trending/pe/LifeOS创作声明：本文部分内容由AI辅助生成（AIGC），仅供参考